The coalition that carried President Donald Trump to the White House in 2024 was built on a few distinct pillars: a relentless economic message, a hard-line immigration stance that galvanized his base, an alliance with popular podcast hosts who amplified his appeal and a surge of low-propensity voters who showed up in historic numbers.
Now, with the 2026 midterms in sight, each of those pillars is showing cracks — and Republicans are quietly grappling with the possibility that the formula that delivered a commanding presidential victory may not survive a midterm election.
Trump's approval rating has sunk to 41%, its lowest point in almost a year, according to aggregate polling averages. Public confidence in the economy remains weak. And a series of Democratic victories in special elections — nine seat flips in districts Trump previously carried, according to the Democratic National Committee — has rattled Republicans who once felt secure in their congressional majorities.
"The biggest two factors that ultimately determine these races are, first and foremost, the president's approval numbers," said one White House ally, who requested anonymity to describe private conversations on Capitol Hill. "Then, second, is how Americans feel about the economy."
On both counts, the trends are moving in the wrong direction. This is a preview of Akayla Gardner's latest article. Read the full article here. |
