What our final midterms forecast reveals

Plus, Supreme Court rejects DOJ request to intervene on California ballots |

VIEW IN BROWSER Tuesday, Nov. 03, 2026 Today, we’re looking at the state of the polls as Americans cast their midterm ballots, how a fact-checker prepares to debunk Trump’s election lies, the case for same-day voter registration and more. Plus, Rachel Maddow discusses her “black box” concerns about what Trump might do to subvert the election.   MS NOW; Finn Gomez / Getty Images The final polls are actually better than some Democrats are expecting — with a few caveats By G. Elliott Morris Election Day is finally here, and the polls, early voting and general electoral dynamics are practically now all in agreement: you should expect a big “blue wave” in the midterm elections that is large enough to give Democrats the House, and might be large enough for them to flip the Senate. But how much faith should we put into that consensus? Our final forecast gives Democrats a 99% chance of winning the House, with a median of 240 seats. Republicans would need the polls to be off by more than they were in 2016, 2020 or 2024 to change that. Our certainty about the House does not extend to the upper chamber of Congress, however. The polls in the Senate are much closer. Our final forecast gives Democrats a 77% chance of getting there, with a median of 52 seats. They have an 87% chance of reaching at least 50, but 50 isn’t enough.   Read the rest of G. Elliott Morris’ election forecasting model here. And don’t forget to follow MS NOW’s live blog coverage to stay on top of midterms news and results. Respond directly to G. Elliott Morris’ latest column by submitting a letter to the editor through this form. Read our submission guidelines here. Respond directly to G. Elliott Morris’ latest column by submitting a letter to the editor through this form. Read our submission guidelines here. Must Reads   Anna Lefkowitz / MS NOW; Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images; Getty Images I’ve spent years fact-checking Trump. Here are 5 election claims he’s already making — and the facts undercutting them. The president has outlined — falsely — several ways he says Democrats will manipulate the vote, argues Glenn Kessler. Read more.  ‘Nobody’s rubber stamp’: Democratic socialists prepare to test House leadership As Democrats fight to reclaim the House, insurgent candidates are preparing to test the party's leadership — and the limits of their influence in Washington. Read more from Ebony Davis.  Think your vote doesn’t matter? The data says otherwise. Close races cut both ways, margins don’t stay put over time — and nobody really knows in advance how close the race they are voting in will be, argues Ali Velshi. Read more. It’s Election Day. You should be able to cast a ballot even if you just realized that. In many states, you would have needed to register to vote weeks ago. There's a simple fix, argues Ryan Teague Beckwith. Read more. Win McNamee / Getty Images How Democrats could actually flip the Senate A year ago, a Democratic majority looked out of reach. Now, Republicans are spending to defend red states while Democrats risk seats they can’t afford to lose. Read more from Hunter Woodall, Ali Vitali, Kevin Frey, Jake Traylor and Nnamdi Egwuonwu.   Election Live Blog Carson Elm-Picard / MS NOW; Photo courtesy of the candidate’s campaign Follow along for live Election Day updates, including poll closing times, key Senate, House and governor results and how to watch MS NOW’s exclusive coverage. Read more. Top Videos   DEADLINE: WHITE HOUSE Supreme Court rejects DOJ request to intervene on California ballots  Watch now   RACHEL MADDOW Maddow’s ‘black box worry’ among Trump’s dirty tricks to subvert the election Watch now   THE MOMENT WITH KATY TUR Trump’s final midterms pitch centers on Reflecting Pool Watch now   STATE OF PLAY WITH PETER ALEXANDER ‘I will always be worried about Haley, the person’: Rep. Dingell reacts Stevens’ GOP endorsement Watch now   More from MS NOW   Tonight, join Rachel Maddow and team for all-night midterms results and analysis, with Ali Velshi breaking down the numbers. Special coverage begins tonight at 6 p.m. ET on MS NOW. Tonight, watch Ali Velshi work his magic at the Big Board. The camera will follow him as he breaks down results in real time throughout this historic midterm election night. Go to ms.now/velshicast and hit “Notify Me” so you don’t miss the stream. 229 West 43rd St. New York, NY 10036 PRIVACY | CONTACT | UNSUBSCRIBE PRIVACY | CONTACT | UNSUBSCRIBE