| | | | Good afternoon. This is an update on the progress that House Republicans are making (or not making) on passing the Trump legislative agenda. There is a fundraising ask for Democrats at the end of this email. Even if you are not able to donate at this time, I ask that you read the email anyway, as I believe this email functions as an important news update and explainer in its own right.
Republicans make a little progress...
On Thursday, after appeasing hardliners in their own caucus with the possibility of making deeper cuts to the social safety net, House Republicans successfully passed a budget resolution containing the outline of Trump's legislative agenda through the House Budget Committee. In a nutshell, this agenda is extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts and ramping up immigration enforcement, paid for by cuts to both the social safety net (primarily from Medicaid) and the investments in clean energy passed in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
...but they still have a long way to go.
Passing this budget resolution through the House Budget Committee is only the very first step in a long process of actually passing the Trump legislative agenda through Congress. Next up, Republicans need to pass this resolution through the full House of Representatives. After that, the Senate must follow suit. Even when all of that is done–which might take several more weeks–then Republicans actually have to write the budget reconciliation bill that will contain the Trump legislative agenda, and appease their numerous factions in the process. Click here for an explainer on the budget reconciliation process form Georgetown University, and click here for an explainer I wrote last month on the many factions in the House Republican caucus that will make passing the Trump agenda difficult.
Vulnerable Republican moderates raise objections
Only two days after House Republicans passed their budget resolution through the Budget Committee, Republican moderates were already on the verge of tanking the bill over the potentially large cuts to Medicaid that it contains. These are just not vague threats from squishy moderates who will eventually just fold. One of the leading voices opposing the cuts is Republican Rep. David Valadao, who voted to impeach Donald Trump in 2021, and thus who obviously isn't afraid to stand up to him. He claims that he is not alone: "There's at least double digits of people who are severely concerned," Valadao said. "And I think as people start to understand the specifics of how it's going to affect their districts, I imagine that number grows." Math problems for Republicans
Currently, Republicans only enjoy a 218-215 majority in the House of Representatives, so they can only lose one vote and still pass this budget resolution through the full House. If they are facing double-digit numbers of their own members opposed to their budget resolution over the Medicaid cuts in the bill, then they are in some trouble.
Fourteen House Republicans won their elections in 2024 by 5% or less, according to the Cook Political Report. Most of those Republicans have urged House Republican leadership against any significant cuts to the social safety net, especially Medicaid and other health care programs. Even Donald Trump is backing away form Medicaid cuts, given the vast reach and popularity of the program. It's no wonder Democrats are piling on by indicating that any cuts to Medicaid will play a central role int campaign advertising in 2026.
How you can make things worse for Republicans
There is a way that grassroots, Democratic activists like you can pile onto Republican problems and make them even worse. Before there is any chance of congressional Republicans passing the Trump agenda into law, on April 1 there will be special elections for two vacant House of Representatives seats in the Florida 1st and 6th congressional districts. So far in special elections held in 2025, Democrats have outperformed the share of the vote they received in November 2024 by an average of 9% (see The Downballot's tracker of 2025 special elections for this info). If we can keep up, or exceed, that level of Democratic overperformance in these two House elections, it is going to make the vulnerable, moderate House Republicans who are already objecting to deep social safety net cuts even more reluctant to go along with the Trump / Republican legislative agenda. Therefore, strong Democratic performances in the Florida special elections can potentially reduce the scope of the social safety net cuts Republicans have planned, and might even have an outside shot of stopping those cuts altogether.
The Democratic candidates in the Florida 1st and 6th congressional districts in the April special elections are gun safety activist Gay Valimont, and teacher Josh Weil. If we can get them the resources they need to operate full-fledged campaigns with functioning offices, professional staff, big advertising budgets and robust voter turnout operations, then they can put a scare into vulnerable Republican House members in purple and swing districts that will greatly reduce the scope of legislation that Republicans can pass in 2025-2026.
To make it as easy as possible for you to help in this effort, I put together an Act Blue page that includes Gay Valimont, Josh Weil, and Bowers News Media PAC.
Please, split a $10 donation to Gay Valimont, Josh Weil and Bowers News Media PAC. Help support our shared goals of stopping the Trump / Republican legislative agenda and retaking the House of Representatives for Democrats.
Donate $10
Donate $20
Donate $30
Thank you for your time,
Chris Bowers
Founder, Bowers News Media
| About Bowers News Media
Chris Bowers is a 20-year veteran of online, progressive grassroots news and political activism. Before founding Bowers News Media in May 2024, for 14 years Chris served as the director of the email and activism programs at Daily Kos, growing those programs from scratch into one of the largest online progressive grassroots news and activism operations in the history of the Internet. Before his time at Daily Kos, Chris spent six years writing for the blogs MyDD and Open Left, publishing over 3,000,000 words and generating tens of millions of reads.
Matt Kerbel is a former radio news reporter and television newswriter who for 36 years has been a professor of political science at Villanova University outside Philadelphia, where he also served as department chair and vice provost. Matt is the author, co-author, or editor of nine books on the politics of television and the Internet, political parties, campaigns, elections, and the presidency. His titles include If It Bleeds, It Leads: An Analysis of Television News, and two books on the rise of online progressive activism: Netroots and Next Generation Netroots (co-authored with Chris Bowers). His work traces the arc of political engagement from the cynical television-dominated 1990s through the revival of grassroots activism in the twenty-first century. A graduate of the University of Michigan, he is the voice of the Substack newsletter Wolves and Sheep, a part of the Bowers Kerbel Media collaboration.
Bowers News Media, 620 Park Avenue #402, Rochester, NY 14607. For more information, visit our website at www.bowersnewsmedia.com or email Chris Bowers directly at chrisbowersmedia@gmail.com. You can read our privacy policy here (PDF).
| | | | | Sent via ActionNetwork.org. To update your email address, change your name or address, or to stop receiving emails from Bowers News Media, please click here. | | | |
