Tuesday, November 05, 2024 |
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So far, this election has been unpredictable. After all, who could have foreseen two assassination attempts, a sitting president dropping out after he'd all but secured the nomination and, well, pretty much everything else? But Election Day is here, and it will be hours until we learn who won, and perhaps days before we find out why. Until then, we've asked 17 election experts and analysts to weigh in on the predictions that they are willing to put their names behind before the results are in. Below, read what five of them said. After this week, the How to Win newsletter will only send updates when major news hits. Thanks for following throughout the election season. For live election updates, follow MSNBC's live blog and watch special coverage led by Rachel Maddow starting at 6 p.m. ET. |
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What do you predict about the election? |
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| Trump will declare victory early — perhaps even on Tuesday night, well before all of the votes have been counted, surfacing baseless claims of fraud to justify his position. His hope is that by announcing it as some grandiose proclamation from behind a podium, it'll carry weight. His hope is that right-wing media will uncritically spread his claims in an effort to further cement his lie as truth. His hope is that Republican lawmakers and senators will use the fact that their voters believe Trump won (merely because he said it) as a predicate not to certify the election results. They will all amplify each other, creating a feedback loop. Do not fall for it. Ballots will be counted until the states certify. The certification process will be transparent and accurate. Trump will lie, but the numbers won't. |
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| My prediction: Vice President Kamala Harris will win Pennsylvania. For years, Democrats have lost touch with rural Pennsylvania, prioritizing globalization over local economic realities. In places like Wilkes-Barre and Johnstown, communities devastated by disappearing factories and coal mines felt abandoned. Harris is breaking that pattern. Her campaign isn't just showing up in these forgotten regions; they are simultaneously energizing classic Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and the suburban blue-collar counties. By building a comprehensive strategy that speaks to rural economic revitalization and urban political mobilization, she's crafting a nuanced approach that could fundamentally reshape Pennsylvania's political landscape. |
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| Despite the nauseous optimism around this election, we won't breathe a collective sigh of relief until the oath of office is taken on Jan. 20. Our anxiety levels aren't high just because a new president is about to be elected; it's the blatant public racism, Nazi-style gatherings and effort to stack the courts against public sentiment that has people worried about our future. And given we've already experienced one insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, it's hard to imagine any relief from this constant vigilance of "what will happen next?" until a new president is sworn-in and safely ensconced in the White House. May there be enough Lexapro and Xanax to last us until then. |
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| I'm not expecting a blue wave on election night. But I do think that next year we'll be calling New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries "Mr. Speaker." With just a four-seat majority, Republicans are holding on by a thread. There are 16 congressional seats where Biden won in 2020 and Republicans then won in 2022. The majority of those are in the bluest of states: California and New York. In these states it will come down to three things. The first is math: Turnout is higher in presidential years, which will benefit Democrats. The second is money, as the best-planned campaign is nothing without the funding and Democrats have been significantly outraising Republicans. The third thing is Trump, who will weigh down Republican candidates in the must-win areas. |
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| Trump is going to comfortably sweep the Sun Belt states, by 2 percent or more in each, putting intense pressure on Harris' Midwest firewall. In Arizona and Nevada, Trump's inroads with Hispanic voters and painfully high housing costs there will put those two states out of reach. Georgia, my home state, has not been kind to Trump in the past, but it remains a red state at its core. The anti-Trump fire in the suburbs has subsided mildly, and Republican voters there who don't care for Trump are itching to be back with the red team. This leaves all eyes up north. |
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Polls show that the presidential race is essentially tied, so the margin of victory may depend on which campaign turns out more of its supporters. |
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Tonight, Rachel Maddow and team lead coverage of the 2024 election, with Steve Kornacki breaking down results at the Big Board. Watch tonight beginning at 6 p.m. ET on MSNBC and check out live blog for real-time updates. |
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