Jen Psaki: Biden's fighting chance in Florida

A realistic look at Democratic chances in the Sunshine State

VIEW IN BROWSER MSNBC DAILY Understand today's news with Jen Psaki VIEW IN BROWSER MSNBC DAILY Understand today's news with Jen Psaki Saturday, April 06, 2024 Biden's fighting chance in Florida  By Jen Psaki On Monday, President Joe Biden's campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez said, "Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump's weak, cash-strapped campaign and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition." That sounds encouraging, but given Florida's recent political trajectory, it also feels like a heavy lift. We asked longtime Florida political reporter Marc Caputo, now at The Bulwark, for his take.   Why does it feel like Florida is less of a swing state now?   Swing states swing back and forth. Florida has just drifted rightward for years. The shift became noticeable when Donald Trump unexpectedly won the state in 2016, followed by a string of Republican wins that led Gov. Ron DeSantis to carry Florida by nearly 20 points in 2022. There's nothing swingy about that. There are now no statewide elected Democrats for the first time since Reconstruction. Florida's voter rolls tell the story: In 2008, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by over 600,000; today, Republicans outnumber Democrats by over 800,000. Republicans are hopeful Trump easily bests Biden in November.   How could down-ballot races be affected? Is there optimism for Democrats?   Florida voters have a history of approving left-leaning constitutional amendments (minimum wage increases, medical marijuana, felons' voting rights) and also picking right-wing politicians (Trump, DeSantis, Sen. Rick Scott). So it wouldn't be surprising if voters enshrine abortion rights or recreational marijuana in the state constitution and also choose Trump and Scott. There don't appear to be any endangered Republican members of the U.S. House (20 of 28 seats are held by the GOP).   Florida GOP control in the Florida House probably peaked thanks to catastrophically low Democratic turnout in 2022 that won't be repeated this year. Republicans are bracing for the loss of about five to 10 Florida House seats, but it won't make much of a difference because they control 84 seats in the 120-member Florida House. In the Florida Senate, Democrats hold only 12 seats of the 40-member chamber. They have the most hope of flipping one district, based in Tallahassee, where lawyer Daryl Parks, a former law partner to national civil rights attorney Ben Crump, is trying to knock off Sen. Corey Simon, a former Florida State University defensive tackle.   So is Florida really in play?   Florida can't be too much in play because the Democrats haven't played seriously here for years. They haven't conducted successful voter registration drives, as they did in the Obama years. The Biden political operation essentially ignored the state until recently. And the state party has been out of power for so long that it's hard to raise money. Candidate recruitment has been generally poor. And Republicans enjoy inherent demographic advantages, with whites (notably retirees) and many Hispanic voters of Cuban, Venezuelan, Colombian and Nicaraguan descent. Voters with Puerto Rican roots in Florida tend to be less progressive than their New York counterparts as well. And there aren't enough Black voters to keep Democrats as competitive as there are in other, more competitive Southern states like Georgia or North Carolina.   Read more exclusive insights from Jen Psaki here. And tune into "Inside with Jen Psaki" Mondays at 8 p.m. ET, and Sundays at 12 p.m. ET on MSNBC. 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The film examines the social phenomenon through incidents that made headlines and offers expert commentary about navigating this cultural moment. Watch "Canceled: The Story of Cancel Culture" tomorrow at  9 p.m. ET on MSNBC. MSNBC INSIGHTS Have you ever wanted to provide MSNBC with your opinion about their TV programs, documentaries, and digital products, such as MSNBC.com, newsletters, and podcasts? Now is your chance! Join the MSNBC Insights Community. This weekend on MSNBC SATURDAY MSNBC's "PoliticsNation" at 5pm ET: Gov. Wes Moore (D-Md.) MSNBC's "Ayman" at 7pm ET: Fmr. U.S. Under Secretary of the Air Force Gina Ortiz Jones… President & CEO of Anera Sean Carroll… Halah Admad   SUNDAY MSNBC's "The Weekend" at 8am ET: Acting Secy. Of Labor Julie Su… Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.)… Michael Beschloss MSNBC's "Inside with Jen Psaki" at 12pm ET: Transportation Secy. Pete Buttigieg… Fmr. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano MSNBC Films presents 'XCLD: The Story of Cancel Culture' at 9pm ET   *Subject to change 30 Rockefeller Plaza New York, NY 10112 PRIVACY | CONTACT | UNSUBSCRIBE PRIVACY | CONTACT | UNSUBSCRIBE