We know how this movie ends. When everything is said and done in both the Democratic and Republican primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are going to be their party's nominees. Still, the individual state contests — including today's primary in Nevada — are providing treasure troves of useful data that will help both teams prepare for the general election. Here's what we've learned on the Democratic side so far, and what Nevada may show us tonight.
First, Biden is doing better than expected. Despite polls showing that Democratic voters did not want the president to run again, his only two challengers, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson, are not getting traction. This is critical. Presidents who face serious-ish primary challenges lose. (See Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush.)
Second, Biden's turnout operation is holding up. The campaign handily won a tough-to-execute write-in campaign in New Hampshire; more Democrats voted for Biden in a non-competitive primary in South Carolina than Republicans turned out in the Iowa caucus (126,321 votes for Biden vs. 109,214 total Republican votes in Iowa). The early vote electorate in South Carolina was 76% Black voters — 20 points higher than the primary electorate in 2020 — suggesting that Biden is holding up with this key demographic. Nevada will also be an important dry run among Hispanic and union voters, both of which will be key in November.
I will also be looking closely at the Republican results. The GOP has bizarrely chosen to bifurcate its contest, with former Ambassador Nikki Haley running on the Republican primary and Trump on a separate caucus on Thursday. If Haley succeeds in getting more votes than Trump, she won't win any delegates, but she could be handing Biden a roadmap for Nevadans who may be open to voting for him when the big contest goes down this fall.
