Starting with tonight's caucuses, Donald Trump faces a precarious eight-week gauntlet of contests, with voters and judges who will test the front-runner's seeming invincibility. Between now and the Super Tuesday primaries on March 5, Trump will contend with the caucuses, the New Hampshire primary (where Nikki Haley poses a threat to him), the Nevada and South Carolina primaries, a ruling in New York's civil fraud case, a ruling on his federal immunity plea defense, a Supreme Court hearing on the Colorado ballot disqualification case, the start of another defamation trial from E. Jean Carroll and — should his immunity plea fail — the potential start of Jack Smith's Jan. 6 trial on March 4. To date, Trump's refusal to engage with his primary opponents and instead use his court appearances as the centerpiece of his campaign communications strategy hasn't hurt him with voters. But he's not without vulnerabilities — a weak showing in Iowa and New Hampshire or a string of setbacks in the courtroom could change the electoral state of play. Certainly, Trump faces a scathing week of attacks in New Hampshire, which is a do-or-die state for Haley. More moments like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's blistering broadside could create lasting damage for Trump in the general election. (Note that unlike in other battleground states, President Joe Biden has a strong lead over Trump in New Hampshire, where voters have been fed a steady diet of anti-Trump messaging from Christie and others.) Trump's national primary polling average is currently over 60%. That means 40% of voters are not yet on board. Most of those voters will likely revert to Trump in the general, but the Biden campaign may still be able to peel away conservatives who can't stomach their nominee. All of which is to say that a Trump victory in Iowa won't tell us very much. But the next two months could reveal a great deal ahead of November. Stay tuned. |
