There is just one person who now stands between Donald Trump and the Republican nomination. Despite losing to Trump by over 30 points in Iowa and 11 points in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley insists she's staying in the race until the South Carolina primary next month. She is definitely keeping the heat on Trump, calling him "insecure" and claiming he "should feel threatened."
She is correct that there are 48 states to go in this contest. She is the best and only alternative to Trump. And there is quite a bit of analysis out there suggesting that maybe she could stretch the process out until May, like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton did in 2008.
But here's the problem. You have to win at least some states in order to compete. Clinton not only won New Hampshire, but also a number of states with large delegate counts including Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Making this path harder for Haley is the Republican nominating process, which is not set up like the Democratic primary was in 2008. This year, the GOP primary was set up by Trump's allies to help Trump. The calendar is front-loaded with states that have electorates much closer to the demographics of Iowa than New Hampshire.
In mid-March, primaries adopt the "winner take all" method. So when Trump wins the majority of votes in Ohio, he will win all 79 of the state's delegates. And by the end of March, more than 70% of delegates will be wrapped up.
In South Carolina, recent polling shows Trump ahead by 30 percentage points, and he has received endorsements from South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster and more recently endorsements from Rep. Nancy Mace and Rep. Jeff Duncan. If she can't win in her home state, how will she build momentum for the Super Tuesday contests just 10 days later?
So it's not as much a messaging problem for Nikki Haley as it's a math problem.
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